The Death of the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle

For years, Bitcoin’s believers treated the four-year halving cycle like sacred geometry — neat, mathematical, and divine. Every four years, the supply was cut, the market bottomed, and then the parabolic bull run began. It gave traders a sense of order in chaos. But the illusion of predictability is gone. The four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead.

Arthur Hayes saw it early. We’re no longer trading halvings — we’re trading the Fed. The new cycle isn’t coded in Bitcoin’s protocol; it’s scripted in liquidity. Every basis point the Federal Reserve moves, every dollar it drains or injects through reverse repos or Treasury operations, dictates the rhythm of risk assets. Bitcoin is no longer a niche speculative asset — it’s the purest reflection of global liquidity conditions.

This changes everything.

ETFs have institutionalised Bitcoin’s bid. Sovereign entities — from El Salvador to Gulf state funds — are accumulating with strategic intent, not short-term greed. These players aren’t refreshing CoinGecko or praying for the halving pump. They are building monetary hedges. The steady, silent absorption of BTC by ETFs and sovereign buyers now eclipses the miner supply narrative.

The halving no longer defines market structure. Liquidity does.

Retail once ruled through reflex and emotion; miners set the tempo with supply shocks. Now, both are passengers. When the Fed expands its balance sheet, Bitcoin rallies — regardless of halving calendars. When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin bleeds — no matter how “bullish” the issuance curve looks.

The new Bitcoin cycle is a macro cycle. It’s the global liquidity tide, the sovereign adoption wave, the institutional migration from fiat to programmable collateral. The rhythm has stretched beyond crypto’s self-contained ecosystem — Bitcoin now beats in sync with global finance.

That’s evolution, not death.

The 4-year halving story built faith. The new cycle demands understanding — of flows, balance sheets, and monetary dynamics. Those who keep trading like it’s 2017 will keep getting trapped in nostalgia. Those who learn the new rhythm will see what’s coming next.

Volatility compresses... upside expands.

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—Afsheen Jafry- Funding Readiness Consultant | Crypto × AI StartupsHelping founders go from idea → funded → VC-readyBridging Founders × VCs × Retail (100K+ community)afsheenjafry.co.uk

(DM me on X @afsheenjaf or Telegram @afsheenj8 if you’re ready to fund your vision before the next liquidity wave hits.)